Balance
Which level takes far longer than the ones before it, and where do players stall?
Experience tables look smooth on paper and still hide a level where progress suddenly crawls. This entry shows how to measure real time per level from play logs, why the average is the wrong number to look at, and how to flag the walls.
Players swear the game cheats with misses: how often does a long streak happen?
A skill with a high chance still fails several times in a row, and players write angry reviews. Whether that is a bug or just chance depends on a number that most people guess far too low. This entry shows how to work it out for a whole fight and for all players.
Parties without a healer lose more, or do they only play harder fights?
Comparing win rates of parties with and without a role gives a big gap that is mostly something else: bigger groups bring more roles and win more. This entry shows how to compare like with like, so you know what a missing role really costs.
Some builds can never kill a monster that heals itself: how do you find the line?
A weak character hits a regenerating enemy again and again and nothing happens. Nobody told the player why. This entry shows how to compute the smallest hit that works, how long a kill takes, and why the simple division gives the wrong answer.
Soften bad luck without changing the overall hit rate: how do you calibrate it?
Raising the chance after each failure calms the angry players, but it also quietly makes the skill hit more often than you advertised. This entry shows how to find the starting value that keeps the average where you promised and what the longest dry spell becomes.
Do players need potions to win the fights, or are potions just a comfort?
The number of potions used per fight does not tell you whether a fight is too hard. Some players drink at the first scratch and others at the last breath. This entry shows how to count the fights where a potion made the difference and how much healing is simply wasted.
Prices in the shop went up with the patch: did players really get poorer?
Comparing what players own before and after a patch is unfair when the later players are simply further along. This entry shows how to compare players of the same game age and how to set their wealth against the price of a fixed shopping list.
Which quests do players accept and then get stuck on without ever saying so?
A quest that stays open is not necessarily a stuck quest, as people postpone things on purpose. This entry shows how to separate players who are stuck from players who have left or are busy elsewhere, and which quests deserve a second look.
How often should a random fight start while walking, so that it neither bursts nor drags?
A flat chance on every step gives two fights back to back and then a long quiet walk, which players call both annoying and boring. This entry shows how to set the chance and a quiet start so the average is what you meant and the extremes are known.
How many kills until almost every player has the rare drop, and until the full set?
An average of fifty kills sounds fine until you learn that one player in five needs far more, and that a set of several rare pieces takes much longer than adding up the pieces. This entry shows how to work out the real wait for the unlucky and for collectors.
Is a hidden room found by nobody, by everybody, or by the right amount of players?
A secret that only two in a thousand players find is wasted work, and one that everyone finds is not a secret. But you can only judge it among the players who walked past it. This entry shows how to measure that and sort the secrets into sensible groups.
Do players enter areas in a different order than you planned, and which ones?
If a late area can be reached early, some players will, and the balance of everything after it changes. This entry shows how to count from the visit log which areas are entered too early and by how many players, without needing to know who they are.