Soften bad luck without changing the overall hit rate: how do you calibrate it?

Raising the chance after each failure calms the angry players, but it also quietly makes the skill hit more often than you advertised. This entry shows how to find the starting value that keeps the average where you promised and what the longest dry spell becomes.

Why this works

A rising chance after each failure helps over many tries but quietly raises the true average. To keep the promise made to the player, the starting step has to be worked out from the rate you want to show, not borrowed from it.

When not to use it

Skip it for a one-time chance, such as a single roll on a rare prize that can never repeat, and where pure luck is the thrill, as in a gamble. There a ramp cannot help or spoils the fun. Use a clear guarantee instead.

In the full entry

• What to build, step by step
• Starting values and the reason for each
• 3 common mistakes and the fix
• A diagram of every state
• 37 lines of example code with 5 checks that pass
• How your AI shows you that it works

Say this to your AI

Use the Spielerando entry "Soften bad luck without changing the overall hit rate: how do you calibrate it?" (read_entry rpg-pity-ramp-calibrated-to-target-rate) in my game. Build it step by step, and show me how you checked that it works.

Or skip this and connect the MCP: your AI then finds all of this by itself.Connect the MCP