How many tries does a player really need for a rare drop that gets likelier with bad luck?

When a rare find becomes likelier after many misses and is guaranteed at some point, the number printed in the game is not the wait players feel. This entry shows how to work out the real average and the unlucky tail.

Why this works

The chance printed in the game is not the wait players feel once bad luck raises the odds. Following the chance of still having nothing, try by try, gives the true average and the long tail that fuels complaints.

When not to use it

Skip it when the find is not repeatable luck at all, such as a reward earned by a fixed task, or when players can buy the item directly. A helping hand for bad luck then adds complexity with no gain.

In the full entry

• What to build, step by step
• Starting values and the reason for each
• 3 common mistakes and the fix
• 35 lines of example code with 4 checks that pass
• How your AI shows you that it works

Say this to your AI

Use the Spielerando entry "How many tries does a player really need for a rare drop that gets likelier with bad luck?" (read_entry survival-rare-drop-real-wait-with-pity) in my game. Build it step by step, and show me how you checked that it works.

Or skip this and connect the MCP: your AI then finds all of this by itself.Connect the MCP