My AI says the nerf worked because the win rate dropped from 62 to 55 percent

A drop in win rate after a change can be real or just the luck of a few games. This entry gives your AI a quick test that says whether the difference is believable, and how many more games it would take to be sure.

Why this works

With few games, win rates jump around by several points by chance alone. Comparing the gap to the size of that natural wobble tells you if it is more than noise, and tells you how many games to collect.

When not to use it

Skip it when the games are not independent, for instance the same two players repeating the same match. Ten rounds of one pair count closer to one game than to ten.

In the full entry

• What to build, step by step
• Starting values and the reason for each
• 3 common mistakes and the fix
• 16 lines of example code with 3 checks that pass
• How your AI shows you that it works

Say this to your AI

Use the Spielerando entry "My AI says the nerf worked because the win rate dropped from 62 to 55 percent" (read_entry strategy-is-the-balance-fix-real-or-luck) in my game. Build it step by step, and show me how you checked that it works.

Or skip this and connect the MCP: your AI then finds all of this by itself.Connect the MCP