A rare drop feels much too rare, but is the game really wrong

Players say they killed fifty creatures and got nothing. That may be bad luck or a bug. This entry gives your AI a fair way to decide, taking the number of tries into account, and says when there are simply too few tries to know.

Why this works

Rare events show a lot of luck in short runs. Comparing the count to the expected count in units of its natural spread tells chance from a real fault, and refuses to judge when it cannot.

When not to use it

Not for drops with a guaranteed pity counter; their chance changes with each try, so check the counter logic instead.

In the full entry

• What to build, step by step
• Starting values and the reason for each
• 2 common mistakes and the fix
• 18 lines of example code with 3 checks that pass
• How your AI shows you that it works

Say this to your AI

Use the Spielerando entry "A rare drop feels much too rare, but is the game really wrong" (read_entry survival-is-the-drop-rate-really-wrong) in my game. Build it step by step, and show me how you checked that it works.

Or skip this and connect the MCP: your AI then finds all of this by itself.Connect the MCP