The wiki says three percent but players report one: is the drop rate really off?

A few hundred kills are enough to doubt a drop rate, but not enough to prove a bug, and reports from players are biased towards the lucky and the furious. This entry shows how to check your stated rate against logs and how many kills you need to see a given error.

Why this works

A small sample of rare events always scatters widely, so one count never gives the true rate, only a band it probably lies in. Judging the stated rate against that band keeps you from calling luck a bug, or a bug luck.

When not to use it

Skip it when the chance changes with level, group size or bonuses, because then there is no single rate to test. Split the logs by those conditions first, or read the rule that sets the chance directly.

In the full entry

• What to build, step by step
• Starting values and the reason for each
• 3 common mistakes and the fix
• 31 lines of example code with 4 checks that pass
• How your AI shows you that it works

Say this to your AI

Use the Spielerando entry "The wiki says three percent but players report one: is the drop rate really off?" (read_entry rpg-check-stated-drop-rate-against-logs) in my game. Build it step by step, and show me how you checked that it works.

Or skip this and connect the MCP: your AI then finds all of this by itself.Connect the MCP