How many attempts does a group need to beat the boss, counting those who never did?

If you only look at groups that won, the boss looks much easier than it is, because the groups that gave up are exactly the ones you left out. This entry shows how to estimate the effort with every group included.

Why this works

Groups that gave up are part of the difficulty, not noise to be dropped. Counting every attempt of every group against the groups that finally won gives the true odds of one attempt, and looking only at winners measures how long the lucky took, which is always too short.

When not to use it

It assumes every attempt is equally likely to win, which is wrong when groups clearly learn from tries. Then look at early and late attempts apart. With very few groups, or when nobody has won yet, give no number and say only how many attempts have failed so far.

In the full entry

• What to build, step by step
• Starting values and the reason for each
• 3 common mistakes and the fix
• 23 lines of example code with 3 checks that pass
• How your AI shows you that it works

Say this to your AI

Use the Spielerando entry "How many attempts does a group need to beat the boss, counting those who never did?" (read_entry tries-until-a-group-clears-the-boss) in my game. Build it step by step, and show me how you checked that it works.

Or skip this and connect the MCP: your AI then finds all of this by itself.Connect the MCP