Spielerando

Do new players who lose their first online match come back less often?

It is tempting to compare how many winners and losers returned, but the newest players have not had time to return yet and make everything look worse. This entry shows who to leave out and how to avoid drawing a conclusion from too few people.

Why this works

Someone observed for too short a time cannot yet have come back, so counting them as gone makes the newest players look worst. Only those who were watched through the whole waiting window can fairly show whether a win or a loss changes the return.

When not to use it

It will not tell you why people return, since winners and losers differ in more than the result. Use it as a pointer, and test a change, such as an easier first opponent, on a small group before you rely on it.

In the full entry

  • What to build, step by step
  • Starting values and the reason for each
  • 2 common mistakes and the fix
  • 32 lines of example code with 3 checks that pass
  • How your AI shows you that it works

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Use the Spielerando entry "Do new players who lose their first online match come back less often?" (read_entry first-match-result-and-coming-back) in my game. Build it step by step, and show me how you checked that it works.

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