Will players reach this event's goal in time, judged halfway through?

A straight line from the first days overestimates how far players will get, because events are front-loaded. This entry shows how to project the final result from last time's shape so you can adjust the goal while there is still time.

Why this works

Interest in a timed event peaks early and then fades, so a straight line from the first days overpromises. Past events show how much of the total usually happens by each day, and that shape gives a forecast you can act on while there is time.

When not to use it

Do not trust it for a new kind of event with no history, or one that has a surprise on a given day, such as a bonus weekend. A forecast built on the wrong pattern is worse than none. Use a wide margin and check every day.

In the full entry

• What to build, step by step
• Starting values and the reason for each
• 3 common mistakes and the fix
• 20 lines of example code with 4 checks that pass
• How your AI shows you that it works

Say this to your AI

Use the Spielerando entry "Will players reach this event's goal in time, judged halfway through?" (read_entry idle-event-goal-projection-by-day-profile) in my game. Build it step by step, and show me how you checked that it works.

Or skip this and connect the MCP: your AI then finds all of this by itself.Connect the MCP