Pick a recorded opponent for a score duel that the player can beat about six times in ten

In duels against saved scores of other players, a match that is too easy or too hard feels pointless. This entry shows how to use the player's own recent scores to estimate the chance of winning against each candidate, ties included.

Why this works

A rival is fun when you can win but not for sure. Measuring a rival against the spread of your recent results, rather than one result, tells you how often you would beat it, so you can pick one whose chances are about right.

When not to use it

It does not suit new players with no history, or players who are improving fast, since old results then understate them. Start such players with a clearly easy rival, and let the history grow before you tune the chance.

In the full entry

• What to build, step by step
• Starting values and the reason for each
• 3 common mistakes and the fix
• 32 lines of example code with 5 checks that pass
• How your AI shows you that it works

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Use the Spielerando entry "Pick a recorded opponent for a score duel that the player can beat about six times in ten" (read_entry casual-ghost-opponent-win-chance) in my game. Build it step by step, and show me how you checked that it works.

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