A level was cleared 3 times out of 3, so is it easy? How many plays I need
A clear rate from a handful of plays is a guess dressed as a number. This entry shows how wide the honest range around a rate really is, how it shrinks with more plays and how to say "too early to tell" instead of crowning or condemning a level.
Why this works
A rate from a few plays is mostly luck, and the honest answer is a range that is wide at first and narrows as plays pile up. Comparing the whole range with your target tells you whether to act or to wait.
When not to use it
It assumes plays are independent, which fails when one person plays a level many times or when testers coach each other. Then count people rather than plays. If a fix costs nothing, make it without waiting for certainty.
In the full entry
- What to build, step by step
- Starting values and the reason for each
- 3 common mistakes and the fix
- 23 lines of example code with 4 checks that pass
- How your AI shows you that it works
Say this to your AI
Use the Spielerando entry "A level was cleared 3 times out of 3, so is it easy? How many plays I need" (read_entry how-many-plays-before-a-level-clear-rate-means-anything) in my game. Build it step by step, and show me how you checked that it works.Or skip this and connect the MCP: your AI then finds all of this by itself.Connect the MCP