Chance calculator
Exact answers to everyday odds questions: the chance of at least one success in a number of tries, how many tries you need to be fairly sure, how many on average, and how likely a run of bad luck is. The result comes with how it was worked out, so your AI can show you the sum as proof instead of guessing a number.
When you need it
Whenever you set a drop rate, a critical hit chance or a dice roll, and want to know what it means for a real player. Have your AI show you the working and how many players end up with nothing.
Say this to your AI
Use the chance calculator from Spielerando: my sword drops at 5% per chest. Show me the odds after 20 chests, how many chests 90% of players need, and how you worked it out.Or skip this and connect the MCP: your AI then finds all of this by itself.Connect the MCP
Settings
- chance (0.05): The chance per try, as a number from 0 to 1, so 5 percent is 0.05.
- tries (20): How many tries a player gets.
- certainty (0.9): How sure you want to be, also from 0 to 1. A value of 0.9 asks what nine in ten players need.
Your AI gets the code
The finished code and math come through the Spielerando connection, so your AI can use them right away. Connect your AI
Common questions
if something has a 5 percent chance how many tries do i need
On average 20, but that is not enough to be sure. After 20 tries about one player in three still has nothing. To cover nine in ten players it takes 45 tries.
how do i work out the chance of at least one drop
Work out the chance of getting nothing in every try, then take that away from one. Do not add the chances up: that goes wrong quickly and can even pass 100 percent.
how likely is a losing streak in my game
More likely than it feels. The calculator walks through all the tries and gives the exact chance of a run of any length, which shows how often your players will really meet one.