How many tries does a rare drop really take when luck gets a boost over time?

A drop that gets more likely after every miss feels fair, but the real average cost is hard to guess and often much lower than the printed chance suggests. This entry shows how to compute what players actually pay before you ship it.

Why this works

A rising chance after every miss turns bad luck into a bounded cost. Since the chance changes with each try, the plain printed number no longer describes the average, and only adding up the odds of having got that far tells you what players really pay.

When not to use it

Skip it when drops are meant to be a gamble you can win big, or when players can quit and restart to reset their luck. There, use a plain chance and be honest about it, or tie the reward to effort players can see.

In the full entry

• What to build, step by step
• Starting values and the reason for each
• 3 common mistakes and the fix
• 27 lines of example code with 5 checks that pass
• How your AI shows you that it works

Say this to your AI

Use the Spielerando entry "How many tries does a rare drop really take when luck gets a boost over time?" (read_entry pity-timer-soft-and-hard-expected-pulls) in my game. Build it step by step, and show me how you checked that it works.

Or skip this and connect the MCP: your AI then finds all of this by itself.Connect the MCP