Real loot odds
Works out the real odds of a loot table that includes a bad-luck counter, exactly and without any random sampling. A counter means the chance you show is not the real one, and this tells you the real one, how many rolls players need and the most anyone can ever need.
When you need it
When your drops have a guarantee or get more likely after bad luck, and you want to state or check the true odds. Your AI can show you the shown and real chances, roll by roll, as proof before you put any number in front of players.
Say this to your AI
Use the real loot odds from Spielerando on my table: the crown drops at 2 percent and is guaranteed on the 50th roll. Show me the real chance and the numbers it rests on.Or skip this and connect the MCP: your AI then finds all of this by itself.Connect the MCP
Settings
- baseChance (0.02): The chance per roll before the counter does anything, from 0 to 1.
- softStart (0): The roll since the last rare drop from which the chance starts to rise. 0 leaves this off.
- softStep (0.05): How much the chance rises with each roll from then on.
- guaranteeAt (50): The roll at which the drop is certain. It is also the most rolls anyone can ever need. 0 leaves this off.
Your AI gets the code
The finished code and math come through the Spielerando connection, so your AI can use them right away. Connect your AI
Common questions
what are the real odds with a pity system
Higher than the shown chance, because the guarantee adds extra drops. The real chance is one divided by the average number of rolls per drop, and that average can be worked out exactly by going through every value of the counter.
how do i calculate drop rates with a guarantee
Go through the rolls one by one: how many players are still waiting, and what share of them get it on this roll. The recipe does this for you and gives the odds for each roll.
do i need to simulate my loot table to know the odds
No. A loot table can be worked out exactly, and the same table always gives the same numbers. Simulation is for rules too tangled to work out.